SECTION 02 · HERFINDAHL-HIRSCHMAN MONOPOLY INDEX (HHI)
Critical Mineral Supply Chokepoints & Geographic Concentration
Geographic concentration creates acute supply-chain vulnerability. Below, all quantified critical mineral production series are ranked by their Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (`HHI`, scaled 0 to 10,000), #1 Country Share (%), and Top-3 Country Share (%) based on 2025 USGS output estimates.
I. Critical Chokepoints 22 Minerals #1 Country ≥50% or Top-3 ≥75% (HHI ≥3,500)
II. High Concentration 9 Minerals #1 Country 33%-49% or Top-3 60%-74%
III. Moderately Concentrated 4 Minerals Top-3 Share <60% and HHI <2,000
Global Supply Concentration Leaderboard (Ranked by HHI)
| Rank | Specimen & Stage | #1 Producer | #1 Share | Top-3 Share | HHI Score | Concentration Risk Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Gallium (Ga) Primary production | China | 100.0% | 100.0% | 10,000 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #2 | Niobium (Nb) Mine production | Brazil | 92.9% | 99.1% | 8,652 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #3 | Bismuth (Bi) Refinery production | China | 87.5% | 96.9% | 7,716 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #4 | Silicon (Si) Silicon metal | China | 87.0% | 93.7% | 7,589 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #5 | Magnesium metal (Mg) Smelter production | China | 86.4% | 93.6% | 7,498 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #6 | Tellurium (Te) Refinery production | China | 80.0% | 92.8% | 6,493 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #7 | Tungsten (W) Mine production | China | 78.8% | 85.2% | 6,255 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #8 | Natural graphite (C) Mine production | China | 77.8% | 86.4% | 6,114 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #9 | Vanadium (V) Mine production | China | 74.5% | 98.5% | 5,965 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #10 | Cobalt (Co) Mine production | Democratic Republic of the Congo | 74.2% | 90.9% | 5,720 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #11 | Indium (In) Refinery production | China | 69.1% | 91.4% | 5,096 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #12 | Rare earths (REE) Mine production | China | 69.2% | 89.7% | 5,054 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #13 | Nickel (Ni) Mine production | Indonesia | 66.7% | 78.7% | 4,559 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #14 | Fluorspar (CaF₂) Mine production | China | 60.0% | 90.0% | 4,074 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #15 | Arsenic (As) Production (arsenic trioxide, gross weight) | Peru | 49.2% | 96.7% | 4,037 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #16 | Aluminum (Al) Smelter production | China | 60.8% | 71.8% | 3,810 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #17 | Beryllium (Be) Mine production | United States | 53.5% | 90.0% | 3,615 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #18 | Platinum-group metals (PGM) Mine production: Palladium | Russia | 44.2% | 89.5% | 3,456 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #19 | Tantalum (Ta) Mine production | Democratic Republic of the Congo | 52.0% | 83.6% | 3,279 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #20 | Antimony (Sb) Mine production | China | 36.4% | 85.5% | 2,616 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #21 | Chromium (Cr) Mine production | South Africa | 45.1% | 76.5% | 2,613 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #22 | Rhenium (Re) Mine production | Chile | 37.0% | 74.1% | 2,370 | High Concentration |
| #23 | Phosphate rock (P) Mine production | China | 44.0% | 66.4% | 2,300 | High Concentration |
| #24 | Manganese (Mn) Mine production | South Africa | 38.0% | 73.0% | 2,280 | High Concentration |
| #25 | Bauxite (Ore) Bauxite, mine production | Guinea | 34.1% | 75.9% | 2,141 | Critical Chokepoint |
| #26 | Barite (BaSO₄) Mine production | India | 34.5% | 71.3% | 2,075 | High Concentration |
| #27 | Lead (Pb) Mine production | China | 42.2% | 59.3% | 2,067 | High Concentration |
| #28 | Lithium (Li) Mine production | Australia | 31.7% | 72.4% | 2,024 | High Concentration |
| #29 | Zirconium & hafnium (Zr / Hf) Zirconium mineral concentrates, mine production (thousand metric tons, gross weight) | Australia | 33.3% | 69.2% | 1,996 | High Concentration |
| #30 | Titanium minerals (Ti) Mine production: ilmenite | China | 34.0% | 68.1% | 1,897 | High Concentration |
| #31 | Potash (K₂O) Mine production | Canada | 30.6% | 63.9% | 1,764 | High Concentration |
| #32 | Tin (Sn) Mine production | China | 24.5% | 56.9% | 1,436 | Moderately Concentrated |
| #33 | Zinc (Zn) Mine production | China | 31.5% | 51.5% | 1,343 | Moderately Concentrated |
| #34 | Silver (Ag) Mine production | Mexico | 24.2% | 51.1% | 1,121 | Moderately Concentrated |
| #35 | Copper (Cu) Mine production | Chile | 23.0% | 48.7% | 1,037 | Moderately Concentrated |